Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 12

(14:06) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to PHI 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model