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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:15) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model