4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to PHI 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-27-D.Kazee.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model