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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 42

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 39-K.Bibbs left guard to NYG 40 for 2 yards (25-B.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model