4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 63

New York Giants 18 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.36 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP