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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 55

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-31-F.Moreau.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP