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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 69

New York Giants 18 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to WAS 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 29 for 11 yards (43-S.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP