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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 11

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model