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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 73

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 37 for 17 yards (56-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model