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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 75

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NYG 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 25 for 4 yards (41-O.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model