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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 57

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to WAS 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-36-R.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model