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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 57

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 9-B.Wing punts 30 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-85-R.Ellison.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model