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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 10 at the 41
New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 7
What Actually Happened
(5:41) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.27 EP
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
- 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
KICK
-0.70 EP
- 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 60% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
