Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 68

Houston Texans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 19

(6:53) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to IND 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at IND 47 for 30 yards (39-I.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.08 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model