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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model