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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to IND 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for 14 yards (39-I.Campbell; 41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP