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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 55

Houston Texans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to IND 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model