4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 63

Detroit Lions 35 – Green Bay Packers 11

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to GB 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.47 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP