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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(11:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model