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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 50

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 6-S.Martin punts 29 yards to GB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model