Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 20

(5:44) 8-J.Vogel punts 34 yards to GB 49, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model