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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 44

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model