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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 12

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:35) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model