4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 45

Detroit Lions 10 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to GB 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 44-D.Brown MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-58-P.Worrilow at GB 14. 58-P.Worrilow to GB 14 for no gain (25-M.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model