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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 8-J.Vogel punts 29 yards to DET 10, Center-61-B.Goode. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 12. 39-J.Agnew to DET 12 for no gain (11-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP