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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to BAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 32 for 9 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model