4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 35 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.49 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model