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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.96 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model