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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-D.Dennard MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CIN 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model