Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 40 for 18 yards (23-B.Hill). PENALTY on CIN-23-B.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.86 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model