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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:14) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 22 for 2 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model