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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for 1 yard (88-V.Mayle).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.33 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model