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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model