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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +3.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model