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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model