Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

(6:12) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to CAR 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.00 EP
59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model