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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 19 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.62 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model