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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 19 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to CAR 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay ran ob at CAR 25 for 7 yards (40-D.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model