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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 28 for 9 yards (55-D.Mayo; 19-R.Shepard). ATL-19-A.Roberts was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model