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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 12

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model