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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to ATL 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 47 for 23 yards (19-R.Shepard). PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model