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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 19
Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 1-C.Newton left guard to ATL 18 for 1 yard (42-D.Riley).
The Three Options
GO
+2.85 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP
KICK
+1.61 EP
- 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
