Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

(9:24) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to CAR 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay to CAR 22 for 8 yards (42-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.53 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model