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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 25, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Clay. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.10 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP