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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 60 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 45 for 23 yards (53-B.Jacobs). PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 22.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 40, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model