4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass incomplete short right to 85-A.Derby (24-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.26 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model