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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model