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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to MIA 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant to MIA 22 for 2 yards (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.61 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model