Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 32, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to BUF 32 for no gain (21-J.Lucas). PENALTY on BUF-24-L.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model