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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP